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DEADLINE: You have
until midnight tomorrow to enter your prediction in the Stretch vs Bigg slug fest
which begins Friday. Email contests@assiniboiadowns.com. More info below.
Pick-6
alert! A very cool $3 million will be at stake in tomorrow's pick-6
pool at
Santa Anita since there's a
$700,000 carryover going into tomorrow's race card. That's why you're receiving The
Insider a day earlier--to give you plenty of time to dream and
scheme until post time at 3 p.m. tomorrow. And to remind
you again about the two South Dakota businessmen who spent chump change--a mere $8--to win $2.7
million in the pick-6 there a few years ago. Plus the two local
players who picked up $25,000 apiece playing the pick-6 at Santa Anita
a couple weeks ago. One spent $48 on his ticket, the other $144. And to show you a profitable angle on
playing the trickiest race at that Californian track (see Tip o' the
Week below). I'll save space in
this column to report on your big win next week.
In other news, shock and
surprise filled the week:
• Shock! The horse on almost
everybody's Kentucky Derby list, War Pass, faded to
last place in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday--sending some
sharp local players
crying all the way to the bank. See below.
•
Surprise! A vet's study shows horses break down
on synthetic tracks as often as
they do on dirt
• Get a ringside seat! The
Great Spring Slug Fest between Stretch and me begins
Friday and your ringside seat is a mere mouse-click away on
the Bettor's Blog.
You still have time to predict the winner to win $50.
• Fabulously fat Saturday is nine days off! What a day! March 29 will feature the
$6 million Dubai World Cup
in the morning, the Florida Derby
in the afternoon
and Funny Cide's
owner speaking at an awards
banquet at the Downs at night.
You don't want to miss any of it. The day kicks off with a free 9:30 a.m. horseplayer
seminar in the Finish Line.
And, oh yes, spring
officially begins just after midnight tonight! The sun will
cross into the northern hemisphere at exactly 12:48 a.m. while you're
analyzing Santa Anita's pick-6 from a program or form you picked up
tonight at the track or OTB location. And, of course, the
Easter bunny comes hopping into our lives this weekend--to give you an
extra holiday and, hopefully, boost your nest egg, too!
FIRST SHOCK, THEN AWE-SOME PAYOFFS
War Pass fizzles, locals pad pockets
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This ticket
paid $317.50
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Gasps filled the Clubhouse
Saturday afternoon--and there was some cheering--as the great War Pass, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and highly touted for
Kentucky Derby stardom, struggled in the Tampa Bay Derby and finished
last. People with keen hearing
could hear screams emanating from leaping bridge-jumpers who had heaped
$300,000 to show on the horse, hoping to get a quick five per cent
return on their investment. A
local player had put down $400--just a curb jumper--with an expectation
of making a "sure" $20 when the horse finished anywhere in
the top three. But War Pass's fizzle put smiles on the faces of at least four local
bettors. They had played other horses to show and get a load of the
payoffs: $25.20, $27.80 and $76.40.
Stretch's $50 to show on Big Truck, winner of the race,
netted him more than $600. My
ticket with $5 to show on all seven horses in the race (see
illustration of ticket) earned $317.50. Alden Wiebe,
whom I wrote about recently in My Most Memorable Moment
picked up $750 for $20 to show on the third-place finisher. And another
player showed me his show play as well. I also won a few accolades from
race watchers for having played a superfecta in the race--eliminating War Pass and wheeling the next best three horses in the race with ALL horses in the fourth position.
My $24 ticket earned almost $1,000.
So, you ask, why
were these show bets so brilliant? Not just because War
Pass might lose. But also
because of how show bets are calculated. Even if War Pass had won, other show horses could still have paid $3 or $4. That's because race tracks do not dip
into the show pools of other horses to pay off a monster show bet on
one horse. The tracks pay off on
the overbet horse out of their own
pockets. So, if War Pass had won, Tampa Bay Downs would have had to pay out about
$12,000 of their own money, not affecting other horses finishing in the
show position.
Playing against War Pass wasn't just done with a hope and a prayer, either. Players had
a legitimate handicapping angle.
War Pass up to Saturday showed himself to be a one-dimensional
horse. He needed to get the
lead. What would happen if he
were challenged for the lead?
Well, we saw what happened on Saturday. When he couldn't clear, he became
very ordinary. You can watch the
Derby free at www.tampabaydowns
SYNTHETIC TRACKS NO BETTER
Vet's study casts doubt on
breakdown claims
Did the racetracks that spent
$10 million and more installing synthetic racing surfaces do so for no
really good reason? Has the
disruptiveness to bettors been caused unnecessarily? That's what a six-month study of 42
race tracks by a prominent veterinarian appears to show. Dr. Mary Scollay,
chief vet fo Florida's Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering, told a Keeneland conference
that horses break down on synthetic surfaces as much as they do on dirt
surfaces--about two breakdowns for every 1,000 starts. Her study lasted from June 1 to Dec.
31 last year and excluded all California tracks which did not take part in the study. The data: Dirt--244 fatalities from 123,890
starters for a ratio of 1.96 fatalities per 1,000 starts. For synthetic
surfaces--58 fatalities from 29,744 starts for a ratio of 1.95 per
1,000 starts. The vet said she was
"floored" by the similarity between breakdowns on both
surfaces. (At Assiniboia Downs
last summer, the stats were twice as good as the average in her
study--only one breakdown per 1,000 starts.) Downs promotions coordinator, Allan Gray, whose father, Clayton,
trains horses at the Downs, said the study is somewhat "misrepresentative"
because year-to-year comparisons of breakdowns at the same track would
give a truer picture of the situation.
For more info, read the full Daily Racing Form article on this
subject (and Allan's comments) here.
SLUG FEST BEGINS FRIDAY
My demeanor: polite
ruthlessness
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Stretch vs Bigg begins Friday
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I often get accused of being
overly competitive--whether it's playing Monopoly, Scrabble or chess
and I'm still sick about finishing second in a canoe race in which my
canoeing partner and I lost to a team that simply dragged their canoe
through the sand instead of portaging the correct way, with the canoe
over their heads, as we did. That's the spirit I bring to you out there
who are supporting me in my Great Spring
Slug Fest against blogger Stretch
who also hates to lose and has nerves of steel. When his career as a professional
golfer hinged on his absolutely, positively sinking a tricky,
down-the-hill 10-foot putt on the final hole of the critical golf game
some years ago, he didn't flinch.
I watched as he sank it.
He calls my handicapping "one-dimensional" and likes
to lecture, even criticizing my wins when they don't meet his criteria.
So, against this politely
ruthless backdrop we begin making our head-to-head plays Friday, each
with a $400 cash bankroll: 20 plays within 20 days, betting a minimum
of $20 or a maximum of five per cent of our bankrolls, to win, place or
show. Stretch will post them
each morning on Bettor's
Blog by about 11 a.m. Whom do you think will win?
You have until tomorrow at midnight to predict the winner and by how much. (E.g. "Bigg
by $432.") The closest
predictor gets $50. Email your
selections to this neutral contest site: contests@assiniboiadowns.com. And start watching our picks on Bettor's
Blog on Good Friday. (Bad
Friday for Stretch.)
QUICK BITS: Setting the record straight
Last week, I heaped great
praise on Stretch for single-handedly constructing a $50 Magna pick-5
ticket in two hours of careful analysis and the ticket paid almost
$1,500. In fact, Web Wizards
owner Marshall Posner also played a large handicapping role in
that ticket and it was the two of them who put together the winning
ticket (and graciously shared it with me) . . . An
easy million: "Ho-hum. I've just won $1 million." That's the way it seemed when a nicely
dressed warehouse man, John Placzankis,
41, stepped up to a line on Santa Anita race track Saturday, was handed
a horseshoe as part of St. Patrick's celebrations and he pitched it at
a spike driven into the ground.
The horseshoe clanked when it struck the spike and dropped
around it. One-million dollars
was his. One million
dollars. Never had $1 million
seemed so easily obtained, almost insignificant. "Drinks for everyone!"
he said as though he had just won a nice triactor instead. Santa had the million dollar giveaway insured. How about that Chantal! Fans at Santa Anita fondly chant her
name. Trainers praise her
ability to calm nervous horses.
Woodbine's Chantal Sutherland has become an almost
overnight success as a jockey in the tough big
leagues--Santa Anita--where she's winning at a 14 per cent clip.
WHO WON? Friday is last chance to get into poker finale
Friday poker: Retiree George
Newbury defeated last week's poker winner, John "the
Greek" Ganas, by going "all
in" with an ace and received $100 in wagering vouchers. He and Fred Bruenger
win seats in the $1,000 March 28 poker finale. Tomorrow night is your last chance
to qualify for the finale. Play show parlay on Sam Houston or enter
your name in the draw to get in.
More.
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Horseplayer
tourney: Winner Debbie Coulson (left), Jeff Rozmus (3rd), Myrna Dram (2nd). Promo
guy Allan Gray.
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Show parlay
challenge: Ed McKenna
Death by Bay
Meadows: Bruce Barkwell beat out his wife Carol in the
fourth race and received $100 in vouchers. Did he share them with her?
Player's Choice
Horseplayer Tourney: Debbie Coulson,
27, a stay-at-home Mom, made her first-ever entry into a tournament a
winning one, picking up $500 last Saturday for increasing her imaginary
$48 bankroll to $108.10, outplaying 35 entrants. She said it was a team
effort with her boyfriend, Trevor Phelps, who owns two horses at
the Downs. Two of their picks were Aqueduct longshots. Second: Myrna Dram wins $250 (closing
bankroll: $77). Third: Jeff Rozmus
recieves $100 (bankroll $75.80).
Saturday Double
Play: Glen Sirkis ($100), Glen
Miller ($75), Dave Boehmer, Reg Pluchinske
and Marshall Posner split $25.
Carryover! Show bonus
is worth $125 this Saturday!
(Pick three show horses at Sam Houston
and three at the Meadowlands)
TIP O' THE WEEK: Look for mile speed in 6 1/2f turf races
If you've been
paying attention to my handicapping tips, you should know that Santa
Anita's 6 1/2 furlong down-the-hill turf race is the least predictable
race on the continent. The
average payoff in one study I did was $20.60. But there is an important way to spot
contenders: Look for horses that
have shown impressive early pace in turf route races. Those horses belong on your
tickets. Such a horse was a key
in the Magna Pick-5 last Saturday and the horse won easily.
TASTY
INTERNATIONAL CUISINE, from southern fried chicken to baked tortellini will be dished
out tomorrow night in the Terrace Dining Room between 5 and 8 p.m. Full salad bar and
exotic dessert table. All you
can eat $14.95. Menu. Next Thursday: Texas Barbeque
Easter Sunday brunch: Limited availability. Reserve today! 885-3330.
EASTER LONG
WEEKEND: Stampede Park opens Friday
The first thoroughbred track
in Canada, Stampede Park, begins racing Friday at 7 p.m. Saturday will feature Death
by Stampede, replacing Death by Bay Meadows. Derby prep Saturday: The $500,000 Lane's End
Stakes at Turfway Park is the next stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby which has
less predictability as a result of War Pass's loss last Saturday.
NOTE: VLTs
are closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday but full racing cards
continue each day.
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Happy Easter!
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