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Information about trip
handicapping, class comparisons, equipment and medication
changes, plus a whole lot more! (SEE BELOW)
BLINKER CHANGES
The most important equipment change in regards to
your wagering selection is blinkers "on"
or "off". Trainers use blinkers to help
a horse travel straighter, to keep the animal's
mind on business during a race, or to help stimulate
a better racing performance by either relaxing a
horse or waking him up.
Blinkers on for the first time often has the effect
of increasing a horse's earlier speed, especially
in the case of young horses. A horse with blinkers
off for the first time often will relax and come
from off the pace.
While these angles can produce winners, the most
profitable blinker patterns require a following
of the horse's long term form. The blinker patterns
"on - off - on" and "on - off - on
- off" produce the highest percentage of winners
at a good profit.
FIRST AND
SECOND TIME LASIX
Lasix is a legal medication used to help horses
that may suffer to some degree from "exercise
induced pulmonary hemorrhage (EIPH)". Lasix
acts as a diuretic and is the best industry monitored
solution to EIPH.
In regards to horse selection and lasix, the two
angles to concentrate on are first and second time
lasix. One of the most potent wagering angles in
racing is a horse that has shown early speed, before
tiring, in his start prior to receiving lasix for
the first time. The theory is that the horse may
have suffered some degree of EIPH in his previous
starts and will now be helped by the medication.
First time lasix horses can not only wake up, but
can also sometimes improve dramatically. This also
applies to horses coming off a layoff, especially
maiden claimers and horses taking sharp class drops,
while showing a good series of recent work outs.
Second time lasix winners are tougher to catch and
thus, are usually more profitable. The theory is
that a horse receiving first time lasix is unsure
of himself.
By the time the horse figures out that he can run
faster, without being affected by EIPH, his race
is often over. These horses can perform more confidently
in their second start on lasix.
TRIPS
During the running of a race, horses can experience
various degrees of "trouble" that prevent
them from performing up to expectations. They may
break poorly from the gate, travel wide on the turns
thus covering more ground, become blocked, boxed
in, or simply shut off by other horses. This can
cause a horse to lose their racing path or momentum.
Horses who experience trouble or disadvantageous
trips can come back to run well in their subsequent
starts at good odds.
Look for "trouble lines" in the programs
or the racing form and factor them into your selection
process.
TRACK BIASES
Some areas of the track are better than others on
some days and horses not able to gain the quicker
inside or outside paths can be at a distinct disadvantage.
Also, certain running styles may be preferred on
a given day. Always watch the early races and try
to determine if one area of the track is producing
more winners or good performances than others. If
horses are winning on the inside or outside, make
a note of it. Also note if horses are winning on
the lead or from off the pace. Factor these possible
biases into your selection process.
Note: Horses
that are running against a perceived speed or surface
bias, who perform well but are defeated, can often
come back to run well at good odds.
BEYER SPEED FIGURES
Beyer speed figures (BSF's) tell you how fast a
horse ran at a given distance on a given day at
a given track. They are currently the best measure
found to determine the horse's actual quality of
performance. With BSF's you can compare horses from
different tracks with a solid degree of accuracy.
Track surfaces can vary in their depth and texture
from day to day. A fast track on one day may be
completely different from a fast track on another
day, etc.
BSF's take into account the actual speed of the
racing surface and arrive at a figure that gives
the bettor the best measure of a horse's actual
final time. If a horse runs a 1:09 for six furlongs
on a deep fast track, his final time is considered
better than a horse that runs 1:09 over a shallow,
hard fast track. BSF's take this into account and
give the horse who completed the race over the deep
surface a higher figure.
Also, when a horse is stepping up in class, BSFs
can help determine whether or not the horse may
be competitive at the new level. The top BSF horse
in a race will win approximately 30% of the time.
A horse with a BSFs in his last two races that are
higher than any of the competitions' last figure
will win approximately 40% of the time. When a horse's
lowest BSF is still higher than the remainder of
the competition's, the horse will win approximately
80% of the time.
CLASS
After a number of races, horses will generally establish
enough form to show which class level they are competitive
at. The lowest class level is the maiden claiming
ranks. This is followed by claiming horses, maiden
allowance horses, allowance horses, and stake and
handicapping horses. If a horse can't win at a high
claiming price he usually drops to a lower level
( price). If a horse beats "claimers"
easily, he may move up to be an allowance horse.
If he beats allowance horses consistently he may
be of stakes quality. Trainers try to race their
horses at a level that they will win at. Many trainers
try to take an edge by dropping a horse a class
or two. Generally, these horses will perform better.
Horses performing well and moving up in class for
their next race are often good selections if their
BSF's are close to the new competition's. Consequently,
an unsuccessful horse that drops down to a level
where his BSF's are competitive, maybe poised to
win. Horses dropping in class twice in a row after
poor performances are best avoided. Also, claiming
horses returning from a layoff and dropping sharply
in class should also be avoided, unless they possess
"back class". A horse that has exhibited
a higher level of class in the past (usually determined
through earnings) and has already passed through
the initial dropping stages is said to have back
class.
Look for a horse with back class when he is returning
off a layoff, at a lower level, and shows decent
workouts. This angle can produce winners.
| Suggested handicapping
reference books for beginners: |
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- Picking Winners
- The Winning Horse Player
- Beyer on Speed
(Author: Andy Beyer)
- Thoroughbred Handicapping State of the Art
- Handicapping by Example
(Author: William L. Quirin, Ph. D.)
- Betting Thoroughbreds
(Author: Steven Davidowitz) |
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