The Derby at this point appears wide open . Many questions will be answered in the next couple of weeks as horses on the bubble sort themselves out. Some questions will remain right up to the Derby, though, as some of the top contenders remain at the synthetic West Coast tracks until May.
SERIOUS CONTENDERS
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D. Wayne Lukas Trains Dublin |
1) ESKENDEREYA: Obviously his Fountain of Youth perfomance was impressive, coming from just off the pace and drawing off, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 106. He's a big improving colt by the great Giants Causeway sire and he has Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher in his corner
2) DUBLIN: Got back on track last time out at Oaklawn while racing wide on both turns and closing very well on a speed-favoring track to finish 2nd. He earned an excellent 96 Beyer for his first race after receiving throat surgery. I expect him to win next time out and I'm considering him a serious contender for the Derby at this point.
OTHER CONTENDERS (would like to see another big performance on their form)
3) LOOKIN AT LUCKY: Obviously a nice horse, winning 5 of 6 for Go Go and Baffert. His next start will tell us a lot: He's leaving Santa's sythetics to run on dirt in the Rebel Stakes in Arkansas on March 13. And Baffert is adding blinkers. This will be a "must watch" race.
4) DISCREETLY MINE:,Ran huge last time out for Pletcher in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds and improved with the added distance. I think he will have to learn how to rate to be a serious contender. He's a half brother to the freak Discreet Cat.
5) CARACORTADO: Awesome race last time drawing off in the Bob Lewis for modest connections. Hard to knock as he is 5 for 5. Not sure about his breeding or his ability on dirt
6) SIDNEYS CANDY: Got back on track last time in the San Vicente at Santa, this horse has tremendous talent and he can rate. He must stretchout next time. Jockey Talamo loves this horse.
7) SUPER SAVER: Excellent breeding. This colt has been off since November when he crushed in the KY Jockey Gold Cup by five lengths and I am anxious to see him return in a big way on the 13th either at Oaklawn in the Rebel or Tampa Bay
8) JACKSON BEND: This overachieving little colt has hooked two bears as he has finished 2nd in his last two races in South Florida. We'll see how he does next time as he ships north for the Wood in New York.
CONTENDERS ON THE BUBBLE
BUDDYS SAINT: Never was too sure about his optical illusion wins in NY beating up on nobodys. But we can't just toss him after his last race, the Fountain of Youth, because it was a total write-off as he endured a horrendous trip, finishing up the track.
AMERICAN LION: Disappointed as co-favourite in the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita. I don't think we saw his best, though, as I wasn't excited about the ride he got. I'd like to see him on dirt but nevertheless I think he will run better next time
TIZ CHROME: He ran a monster race in his first start so I'm not giving up on him despite his poor showing in the Bob Lewis. Trainer Baffert said he had a foot bruise and a lung infection. So let's see what happens in his next race which appears to be the San Felipe at Santa on March 13.
Potentional contenders running this week, unfortunately, are all on Santa's synthetic surface. BULLDOGGER in a first level allowance and SETSUKO, NEXTDOOR NEIGHBOUR, KETTLE RIVER Saturday in the postponed running of the Sham.
(Rob, a horse trainer at Assiniboia Downs, is an exceptional analyst of 3-year-old talent, having won "Road to the Triple Crown" contests two years in a row.)