Rarely does the month of February offer a three year old race that contains as many as 5 serious candidates for the Kentucky Derby. Top trainers usually wait until March and April to see where their young stars fit amongst the Triple Crown nominees. January and February races are most often used for teaching and involve a lot of top horses “ducking “other top horses.

Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes contains the deepest field I have seen in its admittedly short history. Any one who attended my Assiniboia Downs presentation on 2007 Breeders Cup day will already know that I think Pyro is a very special horse but a read through of my race analysis below will show just how tough a task he faces in the Risen Star. What a way to start the serious prepping for the first Saturday in May.

1. CHECK IT TWICE This colt has started 5 times at Calder and won three including the What A Pleasure Stakes ($100,000). His Beyers have improved in each outing and he is already a winner at 1 mile and a sixteenth. He earned a 96 Beyer while winning the What A Pleasure and only Pyro has earned a higher figure. In his last start he was 19 lengths clear of Honey Honey Honey who has since won back to back stakes races convincingly.Most interesting of all about this colt, after his last start the owners moved him from Kathleen O’Connell’s (a decent public trainer) barn to the world class Todd Pletcher barn. Kind of reminds me of Curlin moving from Pitts to Asmussen after one start last year. This colt is a definite contender Saturday and has worked strongly 4 consecutive times for Pletcher. His breeding suggests the Derby distance is too far but he should be extremely tough at this distance.

2. BLACKBERRY ROAD There was a lot of talk about this Gone West colt leading up to the LeComte . He went off as a lukewarm 3-1 favorite and ran second to Z Fortune. I felt he got a better trip than many in the field and looked flat in the final 150 yards with no real excuse. His breeding suggests distance limitations and after his last start I am rating him as a good but not great miler. This could be his last stop on the Triple Crown trail.

3. VISIONAIRE If you have not watched a replay of this horse winning his allowance at Gulfstream I highly recommend viewing it on the internet replays. His off the pace rally was an explosive run up the fence. He earned a 90 Beyer and defeated some highly regarded youngsters. The surprise for me is that they left Florida for this race. I expected him to run in the Fountain of Youth but it will be exciting to watch his late kick on the long Fair Grounds stretch. Triactor possibility at a decent price.

4. BONANZA Allowance winner at Woodbine who probably never thought this field would come up this tough. I’ll like him better for Allowance N2x next start. Numbers lag badly in this group.

5. UNBRIDLED VICAR Well bred grey has been nibbling in allowance company. Best race was probably his third place vs. Eaton’s Gift and Referee. Watching Referee last weekend convinced me that he is not Graded Stakes caliber and as a result I think this horse fits mid-pack only in here.

6. RICH YOUNG RULER Maiden win was at Sam Houston. Welcome to the big leagues. Connections are probably in for a disappointing wake up here. He was all out at Oaklawn vs. horses that wouldn’t threaten these. Not today.

7. THE DARP Part of the pace for the first 6 furlongs here just as he was in the Lecomte. He’ll look better in a NW1 Allowance at Fair Grounds in 3 weeks. Eaton’s Gift beat him by 14.

8. PYRO You all know Ivan and I consider this horse as 1 of the main Derby hopefuls out there. He was such an incomplete horse last year with a tendency of breaking slowly, jumping shadows, and looking around too much. Despite all of that he was the only horse in the country that ever threatened War Pass who was undefeated 2 year old champion. Twice in three tries he was closing hard on War Pass in the stretch and he looked like he would have no problem with increased distance. He finished 12 lengths in front of the third place horse in the Breeders Juvenile last year. If you needed further evidence of his ability, how about Steve Asmussen working him in company with Curlin (2007 Horse of the Year) all January. This colt is for real. The deserving favorite despite coming off a layoff.

9. SIGNATURE MOVE OK his top Beyer in California is only an 80. However, this is the most impressive physical specimen I have seen in the country. He’s enormous, has the longest stride I have measured on a 3 year old this year, and they bought him for $600,000. The downside is that he is a great big kid at the moment. He won’t rate and needs a much stronger rider. He likely has the lead turning for home after some extremely fast fractions and then gets an education as 2 or 3 pass him. He will learn eventually and he will run in the Kentucky Derby as an improving horse. Triactor today and again in Kentucky when he figures this game out.

10. PETEADORIS Louisiana bred turf horse will make lots of money in Louisiana bred stakes races this year.This may be Fair Grounds but these are DEFINITELY not Louisiana breds. No chance.

11. Z FORTUNE Caught me off guard in the Lecomte. Nice run over this surface. Bright future in New York bred restricted stakes. His undefeated streak probably comes to an end in here but his experience on the surface gives him a shot at third or fourth. They convinced Gomez to take the mount and that’s a plus. Second, third, or fourth, but the other Asmussen beats him.

12. PRINCE CORTEZ He’s just too slow. This isn’t Mountaineer, Tampa , or Delta where his 3 for 3 career has been experienced. The stretch out and class rise will serve as a huge discouragement for this one. Last place a possibility.

MY SELECTIONS 8-(1,3,9,11)-(1,3,9,11)